“If turnout is high, it will be because Hagan and her allies turned out less-frequent voters. If turnout is low, it will resemble a typical midterm turnout and will benefit Tillis. Right now, evidence points to an election that more typically resembles a midterm, though this can change over the next two weeks. But if the race were held today, Tillis would eke out a win against Hagan, 49%-47%, with the balance going to Haugh.”
So read the concluding paragraph of the polling memo that the Civitas Institute received from our pollster, Adam Geller, of National Research Inc., on October 22, a full 13 days prior to Election Day.
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